Sunday, August 1, 2004
Governor McGreevey's popularity has shown resilience despite a recent barrage of allegations about those close to him, according to a poll commissioned by The Record.
A month of bad publicity had only a limited impact on likely voters, who rate McGreevey's performance better than they did last fall. Of the voters surveyed, 42 percent found McGreevey's performance "good" or "excellent," an improvement of seven percentage points from November, when the last Record poll was taken.
The proportion giving him a rating of "fair" or "poor," meanwhile, dropped seven points, to 49 percent.
The survey also found that voters are almost equally divided as to whether they view McGreevey as trustworthy. But when asked if their views of McGreevey's veracity were affected by the news of scandals involving two of his fund-raisers, 32 percent said they trust him less, while 31 percent said their opinion of him had not changed. The remaining 37 percent said they were not sure.
Although the public has a generally tepid view of McGreevey as a leader and a candidate for reelection, the Republicans would need an exceptional candidate to defeat him at this point, said pollster Del Ali.
"If this is the zenith of the story, that's good news for McGreevey," said Ali, whose firm, Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., conducted the poll. "These aren't good numbers to have, but if this is the low-water mark, he has a chance to correct them."
Asked whether they would vote to reelect the governor, likely voters were ambivalent. Thirty-eight percent said they would, while 36 percent said they would rather replace him. An additional 22 percent said they would consider voting for another candidate.
"I would say he's vulnerable," Ali said. "He's got work to do."
The telephone survey of 600 likely voters from across the state was taken from Monday through Wednesday. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Polls by Quinnipiac University and others showed McGreevey's numbers improving this year on the heels of several policy victories for the administration, including a landmark land-preservation bill; measures clearing the way for stem-cell research and civil unions for gay couples; and higher property-tax rebates for most residents, funded by an increased income tax on wealthy households.
The question in Trenton has been whether a difficult July put a stop to McGreevey's gradual recovery from last year's dismal ratings. Fund-raiser David D'Amiano was indicted July 6 on charges that he extorted bribes from a Middlesex County farmer who was seeking a favorable government offer to preserve his land. A week later, developer and top McGreevey fund-raiser Charles Kushner was charged with trying to undermine a federal grand jury by seducing witnesses with call girls. Two days later, Commerce Secretary William Watley, resigned amid allegations of misuse of funds.
Considering the governor's frequent appearances in state television and radio advertisements promoting his achievements, his numbers are unimpressive, said Brian Nelson, executive director of the state Republican organization.
"These numbers are very low for an incumbent who faces reelection next year and who has spent nearly $20 million of taxpayer money to improve his public image,'' Nelson said. "Yet a majority want a new governor."
Democrats have aggressively tried to shift the focus to the governor's policies, packing his schedule with events that showcase them even in Boston, where McGreevey was attending the Democratic National Convention last week.
"Record property-tax relief, educational investment, and job growth trump insider gossip and innuendo," said Adam Green, spokesman for the state Democratic Party. "Real people care about real issues that affect their lives."
The governor does have "more work to do," conceded Micah Rasmussen, his spokesman. But Rasmussen said the polling shows that the governor is addressing issues that voters care about.
"I think it's a reflection of all the ways the governor is making life better in this state," he said. "It just goes to show you can't keep a good man down."
That seemed to be true for some of those who responded to the poll. Beatriz Garcia of Edgewater said the governor's performance has been "not excellent, but good."
"What I like is what he's done for the roads and the schools - and the opportunities he gives to minorities," said Garcia, a registered independent.
Others, however, were troubled by the ethical questions surrounding some of the people with whom the governor has associated.
"The fact that some of his donors and some of his appointees have been rather dishonest - I don't think that speaks too well of him," said Linda Maguire of Ridgewood, a Republican.
That sentiment was echoed in another question about McGreevey's role in D'Amiano's indictment.
Most voters did not believe McGreevey's claim that his mention of the word "Machiavelli" on a tape-recorded conversation with D'Amiano was a coincidence. Federal authorities allege that McGreevey used "Machiavelli" as a code word to signal that he knew of D'Amiano's extortion scheme.
Twenty-six percent said they believed his explanation, while 47 percent said they did not.
McGreevey later accused U.S. Attorney Christopher J. Christie of waging a smear campaign by including details of the tape-recorded conversation in the indictment. The poll found that 31 percent felt McGreevey was being unfairly treated by Christie, while 35 percent did not. The remaining 34 percent were not sure.
The governor's aggressive promotion of some issues failed to win him much credit, the poll found. Despite efforts to spread the word that he has fixed a dysfunctional E-ZPass system, overhauled the motor vehicle agency, and made car insurance more readily available, a majority of voters rated him "fair" or "poor" on all those fronts.
But the poll did show strong support for McGreevey's decision to push higher taxes on the wealthy to fund greater rebates for others. Fifty-eight percent said they favored the idea.
McGreevey was consistently more popular among women and residents of North Jersey than he was among men and South Jersey residents.
In the contest for president, New Jerseyans favored Democrat John Kerry over President Bush by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. The state is generally expected to favor the Democratic candidate more than most, but Ali said some of that advantage might be attributed to the Democratic convention. The poll, however, was conducted before Kerry's nomination speech on Thursday.
A majority of New Jersey voters, 55 percent, said they rated Bush's performance as fair or poor, with 42 percent calling it good or excellent.
Trenton Correspondent Mitchel Maddux contributed to this article. E-mail: gohlke@northjersey.com
Copyright © 2004 North Jersey Media Group Inc.
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